Topography-derived wetness indices are associated with household-level malaria risk in two communities in the western Kenyan highlands

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Transmission of <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>generally decreases with increasing elevation, in part because lower temperature slows the development of both parasites and mosquitoes. However, other aspects of the terrain, such as the shape of the land, may affect habitat suitability for <it>Anopheles </it>breeding and thus risk of malaria transmission. Understanding these local topographic effects may permit prediction of regions at high risk of malaria within the highlands at small spatial scales.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Hydrologic modelling techniques were adapted to predict the flow of water across the landscape surrounding households in two communities in the western Kenyan highlands. These surface analyses were used to generate indices describing predicted water accumulation in regions surrounding the study area. Households with and without malaria were compared for their proximity to regions of high and low predicted wetness. Predicted wetness and elevation variables were entered into bivariate and multivariate regression models to examine whether significant associations with malaria were observable at small spatial scales.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>On average, malaria case households (n = 423) were located 280 m closer to regions with very high wetness indices than non-malaria "control" households (n = 895) (t = 10.35, p < 0.0001). Distance to high wetness indices remained an independent predictor of risk after controlling for household elevation in multivariate regression (OR = 0.93 [95% confidence interval = 0.89–0.96] for a 100 m increase in distance). For every 10 m increase in household elevation, there was a 12% decrease in the odds of the house having a malaria case (OR = 0.88 [0.85–0.90]). However, after controlling for distance to regions of high predicted wetness and the community in which the house was located, this reduction in malaria risk was not statistically significant (OR = 0.98 [0.94–1.03]).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Proximity to terrain with high predicted water accumulation was significantly and consistently associated with increased household-level malaria incidence, even at small spatial scales with little variation in elevation variables. These results suggest that high wetness indices are not merely proxies for valley bottoms, and hydrologic flow models may prove valuable for predicting areas of high malaria risk in highland regions. Application in areas where malaria surveillance is limited could identify households at higher risk and help focus interventions.</p

Topography and malaria transmission heterogeneity in western Kenya highlands: prospects for focal vector control

BACKGROUND: Recent resurgence of malaria in the highlands of Western Kenya has called for a more comprehensive understanding of the previously neglected complex highland vector ecology. Besides other drivers of malaria epidemiology, topography is likely to have a major effect on spatial vector and parasite distribution. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of topography on malaria spatial vector distribution and parasite prevalence. METHODOLOGY: Indoor resting adult malaria vectors and blood parasites were collected in three villages along a 4 km transect originating from the valley bottom and ending at the hilltop for 13 months. Members of the Anopheles gambiae complex were identified by PCR. Blood parasites were collected from children 6–13 years old and densities categorized by site of home location and age of the children. RESULTS: Ninety eight percent (98%) of An. gambiae s.s. and (99%) Anopheles funestus were collected in houses located at the edge of the valley bottom, whereas 1% of An. gambiae s.s. were collected at mid hill and at the hilltop respectively. No An. funestus were collected at the hilltop. Malaria prevalence was 68% at the valley bottom, 40.2% at mid hill and 26.7% at the hilltop. Children aged six years and living at the edge of the valley bottom had an annual geometric mean number of 66.1 trophozoites for every 200 white blood cells, while those living at mid-hill had a mean of 84.8, and those living at hilltop had 199.5 trophozoites. CONCLUSION: Malaria transmission in this area is mainly confined to the valley bottom. Effective vector control could be targeted at the foci. However, the few vectors observed at mid-hill maintained a relatively high prevalence rate. The higher variability in blood parasite densities and their low correlation with age in children living at the hilltop suggests a lower stability of transmission than at the mid-hill and valley bottom

The role of grass volatiles on oviposition site selection by Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles coluzzii

Background: The reproductive success and population dynamics, of Anopheles malaria mosquitoes is strongly influenced by the oviposition site selection of gravid females. Mosquitoes select oviposition sites at different spatial scales, starting with selecting a habitat in which to search. This study utilizes the association of larval abundance in the field with natural breeding habitats, dominated by various types of wild grasses, as a proxy for oviposition site selection by gravid mosquitoes. Moreover, the role of olfactory cues emanating from these habitats in the attraction and oviposition stimulation of females was analysed. Methods: The density of Anopheles larvae in breeding sites associated with Echinochloa pyramidalis, Echinochloa stagnina, Typha latifolia and Cyperus papyrus, was sampled and the larvae identified to species level. Headspace volatile extracts of the grasses were collected and used to assess behavioural attraction and oviposition stimulation of gravid Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles coluzzii mosquitoes in wind tunnel and two-choice oviposition assays, respectively. The ability of the mosquitoes to differentiate among the grass volatile extracts was tested in multi-choice tent assays. Results: Anopheles arabiensis larvae were the most abundant species found in the various grass-associated habitats. The larval densities described a hierarchical distribution, with Poaceae (Echinochloa pyramidalis and Echinochloa stagnina)-associated habitat sites demonstrating higher densities than that of Typha-associated sites, and where larvae were absent from Cyperus-associated sites. This hierarchy was maintained by gravid An. arabiensis and An. coluzzii mosquitoes in attraction, oviposition and multi-choice assays to grass volatile extracts. Conclusions: The demonstrated hierarchical preference of gravid An. coluzzii and An. arabiensis for grass volatiles indicates that vegetation cues associated with larval habitats are instrumental in the oviposition site choice of the malaria mosquitoes. Identifying volatile cues from grasses that modulate gravid malaria mosquito behaviours has distinct potential for the development of tools to be used in future monitoring and control methods

Spatial Analysis of Land Cover Determinants of Malaria Incidence in the Ashanti Region, Ghana

Malaria belongs to the infectious diseases with the highest morbidity and mortality worldwide. As a vector-borne disease malaria distribution is strongly influenced by environmental factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between malaria risk and different land cover classes by using high-resolution multispectral Ikonos images and Poisson regression analyses. The association of malaria incidence with land cover around 12 villages in the Ashanti Region, Ghana, was assessed in 1,988 children <15 years of age. The median malaria incidence was 85.7 per 1,000 inhabitants and year (range 28.4–272.7). Swampy areas and banana/plantain production in the proximity of villages were strong predictors of a high malaria incidence. An increase of 10% of swampy area coverage in the 2 km radius around a village led to a 43% higher incidence (relative risk [RR] = 1.43, p<0.001). Each 10% increase of area with banana/plantain production around a village tripled the risk for malaria (RR = 3.25, p<0.001). An increase in forested area of 10% was associated with a 47% decrease of malaria incidence (RR = 0.53, p = 0.029)

Productivity of Malaria Vectors from Different Habitat Types in the Western Kenya Highlands

BACKGROUND: Mosquito Larval Source Management (LSM) could be a valuable additional tool for integrated malaria vector control especially in areas with focal transmission like the highlands of western Kenya if it were not for the need to target all potential habitats at frequent intervals. The ability to determine the productivity of malaria vectors from identified habitats might be used to target LSM only at productive ones. METHODS: Each aquatic habitat within three highland sites in western Kenya was classified as natural swamp, cultivated swamp, river fringe, puddle, open drain or burrow pit. Three habitats of each type were selected in each site in order to study the weekly productivity of adult malaria vectors from February to May 2009 using a sweep-net and their habitat characteristics recorded. RESULTS: All surveyed habitat types produced adult malaria vectors. Mean adult productivity of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato in puddles (1.8/m(2)) was 11-900 times higher than in the other habitat types. However, puddles were the most unstable habitats having water at 43% of all sampling occasions and accounted for 5% of all habitats mapped in the study areas whereas open drains accounted for 72%. Densities of anopheline late instars larvae significantly increased with the presence of a biofilm but decreased with increasing surface area or when water was flowing. Taking stability and frequency of the habitat into account, puddles were still the most productive habitat types for malaria vectors but closely followed by open drains. CONCLUSION: Even though productivity of An. gambiae s.l. was greatest in small and unstable habitats, estimation of their overall productivity in an area needs to consider the more stable habitats over time and their surface extension. Therefore, targeting only the highly productive habitats is unlikely to provide sufficient reduction in malaria vector densities

The Use of Radar Remote Sensing for Identifying Environmental Factors Associated with Malaria Risk in Coastal Kenya

ABSTRACT- Malaria remains one of the greatest killers of human beings, particularly in the developing world. The World Health Organization has estimated that over one million cases of Malaria are reported each year, with more than 80 % of these found in Sub-Saharan Africa. The anopheline mosquito transmits malaria, and breeds in areas of shallow surface water that are suitable to the mosquito and parasite development. These environmental factors can be detected with satellite imagery, which provide high spatial and temporal coverage of most of the earth’s surface. The combined use of remote sensing and GIS provides a strong tool for monitoring environmental conditions that are conducive to malaria, and mapping the disease risk to human populations

Does plot size affect the performance of GIS-based species distribution models?

Kappa, Map accuracy, Species distribution, Logistic regression models, Species frequency curve, Namibia, Q57,